Historic Chases · 2026-09-22

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-22

Zack Wheeler reached 2,000 career strikeouts. And it wasn't alone: Carlos Rodón reached 1,500 career strikeouts.

The Guardians have won 6 straight, and are 8-2 in their last 10.

The so-what: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 40/40 pace — 45 HR and 39 SB, projecting to 46/40. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.13 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

HISTORY LAST NIGHT: Carlos Rodón reached 100 career wins; Christian Walker reached 200 career home runs; Colton Gordon carried a NO-HITTER into the 8th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch.

Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) stole his 39th base — with 45 home runs banked, he is one steal from a 40/40 season; Elly De La Cruz (CIN) homered for the 29th time and stole his 29th base — one homer and one steal from a 30/30 season; Drew Rasmussen (TB) carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a double — and allowed one hit over 6.2 innings (11 K) ▶︎ watch; THE SAME GAME produced both: Vinnie Pasquantino hit a grand slam — his first; Chase Meidroth drove in 5 runs ▶︎ watch; CJ Abrams' tiebreaking home run in the 7th put the Nationals ahead for good in a 3-1 win over the Tigers — and hit 2 home runs ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.6% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 80 in 691 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 154 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 116 in 515 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 496 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 774 rate comparisons across 149 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Went deep more than once: CJ Abrams (WSH) hit 2 home runs ▶︎ watch.

Start streaks: Jared Jones has struck out 8 or more in each of his last four starts (9, 8, 9, 9).

Also last night: Carlos Cortes' go-ahead home run in the 8th put the Athletics ahead for good in a 9-7 win over the Angels ▶︎ watch; Brandon Williamson went 6.0 scoreless — and came out after 68 pitches, having allowed no runs over 6.0 innings ▶︎ watch; Michael Soroka allowed two hits over 7.0 innings (9 K) ▶︎ watch.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), after homering — Triple Crown (AL) · Jake McCarthy (COL) — Triples: 13 now, pace 13, record 36 (Chief Wilson, 1912).

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

01

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 1 stolen base for a 40/40 season; he has 45 home runs and 39 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Miami Marlins.

02

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) needs 1 home run and 1 stolen base for a 30/30 season; he has 29 home runs and 29 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Atlanta Braves.

03

Chris Sale (ATL) is the probable starter and needs 10 strikeouts to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: Cincinnati Reds.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 157 team games, 24 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (69). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-46); 2.5% reached 50 (0.9-7.2% at 95% confidence), from 119 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play
Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Astros' single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 42 and would finish 5 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.37 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (87% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, run production; the largest difference is runs. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Closest to .400
.314AVG
79 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
IMPOSSIBLE
Home Run Leader
45HR
46 projected HR · 24 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
186H
192 projected H · 68 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
47SB
48 projected SB · 80 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
402B
41 projected 2B · 25 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
163B
17 projected 3B · 19 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
247K
255 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
IMPOSSIBLE
ERA Leader
1.86ERA
169.1 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
.314AVG · 41 HR · 102 RBI
leads AVG, level HR, 6 back RBI 0.9% over 20,000 simulated seasons · full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
45/39HR/SB
46/40 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 2 others in the hunt
ACHIEVED
Saves Leader
Bryan BakerTB
40SV
41 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
BrewersMIL
98W
101 projected wins · record 116
IMPOSSIBLE
Run Differential Leader
BrewersMIL
+200
+206 projected run differential